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Utilising Dr Andrew’s Pitchfork in Forex Trading

Andrew’s Pitchfork creates three lines from three ‘pivots’. The bottom line is known as the lower median line (LMLH), the middle line the median line (MLH) and the top line, the upper median line (ULMH).

To paraphrase Dr Mircea Dologa, probably the greatest living expert on the Andrew’s Pitchfork, the cardinal rule of the pitchfork, is that the best pitchfork encapsulates the market flow the most accurately.

The choice of pivot points to use, therefore will depend on to what extent and accuracy does the resultant pitchfork before capture the fullest possible extent of the flow of the market, and identify accurately resistance and support from the historical price action.

The general rule of thumb is the more tests of the line (minimum four tests) the stronger the resistance / support offered by the line.

In drawing a pitchfork the following aspects need to be considered:

  1. Choice of pivots: major, minor, minute; ‘hanging’; Schiff; ‘T’-pitchfork; fibonacci.
  2. Fibonacci and Gann lines (e.g. 25%, 33%, 61.8% etc) and extensions (123.6, 127.2 138.6, 150, 161.8, 2 etc).
  3. Parralel lines (undefined extensions above below a fib or LH line.
  4. Testing of the LH lines (‘Never trust an untested median line – Mircea Dologa’).
  5. Upper and lower trigger lines signifying pitchfork failure

Further aspects related to Pitchforks that ought to be considered:

  1. Action-Reaction line setup
  2. Inner pitchfork (minor pitchfork)
  3. Higher timeframe pitchfork
  4. Pitchfork confluences (e.g. with fibonacci price expansions, extensions and retracements; moving average crossover inflexion confluences)
  5. Price action and related patterns (e.g. candlestick patterns; mirror bar reversals; upsloping and downsloping failure [to reach next line].

The classic trade of the pitchfork involves buying off a well-tested LMLH, or selling off a well-tested UMLH.

The price action at an LH line can do one of three things. Halt (fail to break, possibly turn); Pierce (in an upsloping pattern, pierce through, then close below); Zoom (zoom through and offer a strong close).

The most tradable of a MLMH trade is the zoom of the median line, whereby a order can be placed at the retracement to median line, after a strong close above it.

There are possible trades off the trigger line, but the typical trigger line trade is a zoom followed by a clear retest in the direction of the reversal.

Figure 1a. Choice of pivots: major, minor, minute

Figure 1b. Choice of pivots ‘hanging’

Figure 1c. Choice of pivots ‘Schiff’

Figure 1d. Choice of pivotrs ‘Fibonacci’

Figure 1e. Choice of pivots ‘T pitchfork’.

Figure 2. Fibonacci lines within pitchfork

Figure 3. Parallel lines inside/outside of pitchfork

Figure 4. Well tested line

Figure 5.

Figure 1f. Upsloping failure with candlestick pattern

Figure 2b

Figure 3b

Figure 4b

Figure 5b

 

 

Forex Nous. Applied market intelligence, taking no prisoners.

Forex Nous

Forex trading maxims

Basic forex trading maxims

When we talk forex here, we are talking about trading currency markets, for a consistent profit over the long term, and for an income in the short term. Our dynamic maxims are: preserve capital; restrict losses and maximize gains.

To achieve the first maxim, preserve capital, two rules are required

  • Set a maximum desired exposure at any given time. This can be anywhere between 0.1% and 2% of the total trading assets under management (AUM).
  • Set a maximum daily drawdown before trading must be quit for the rest of the day. This should be no more than 2% of the AUM.

To achieve the second and third maxims, restrict losses and maximize gains, the following rules are required:

  • Never trade less than 1:2.5 risk to reward, except when confident that trading two units is appropriate and closing the first at 1:2.5 and letting the rest run with a stop at break even
  • Use a trailing stop based on swings on the nearest lower time frame to the trade entry

In every way moving forwards, none of these rules shall be broken.

Trading strategies and rules

Integrated Cycle Analysis

We coin the term integrated cycle analysis (ICA) to cover the following elements:

(i) Fundamental analysis of the two currencies being traded, including but not limited to: interest rates and differential; macroeconomic and political fundamentals – GDP, consumer confidence, sectoral indicators such as construction and retail sales figures, unemployment/employment indicators, business confidence indications, political economy, monetary policy meetings of the central bank, fiscal policy decisions of the government, industrial production numbers, statements of politicians and important businesspeople.

Weight will be given to the most recent outcomes for the announced numbers for each currency to give a fundamental direction in terms of possible revaluation behind time, i.e. on the assumption that this information is being adjusted into the price dynamically, rather than instantly as per efficient markets hypothesis.

(ii) Technical analysis forecasting according to multiple timeframe:

(1) Elliott and Wolfe Wave identification
(2) Pitchfork analysis
(3) Fibonacci price and time analysis
(4) Jensen circles
(5) Gann analysis
(6) Momentum indications

This blog is dedicated to the pursuit of a set of principles that together form a complete and concise method of approaching the forex market for trading purposes, by way of analyzing current opportunities available and taking a decision that is discernably high probability, according to the research conducted integrating the features of (i) and (ii) and their components.

Due to the very high levels of competition in trading the forex market, it is necessary to have a ‘take no prisoners’ approach. There must be ruthlessness around having the discipline to research the trade, and take the trade at the desired level, and to perform pre- and post- trade analysis.

Each of the fundamental and technical aspects of ICA need to be researched prior to taking a trade, and the trade should be position-sized only on the basis of a probability given the researched information.